In 2003, when the governor finally faced a recall in California, voters dismissed Democrat Gray Davis and replaced him with Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Critics of Governor Gavin Newsom expect similar results when the election results are announced Tuesday night.
But experts say that the political situation in California has changed significantly over the last 18 years, with a smaller proportion of Republicans, stronger parties and less likely recalls.
According to state data, between 2003 and 2021, the proportion of Republican voters registered in California plummeted from 35% to 24%, while California citizens registered as Democrats started at 44%. Slightly increased to 46%.
According to the California Institute of Public Policy, the number of voters registered without party preference has increased from 16% to 23%, and those voters tend to be democratic.
These changes have resulted in Democrats surpassing Republicans almost 2: 1. This means that if everyone voted for this election and voted alongside the political party, it would be impossible to expel Newsom. (Remembering Mr. Newsom requires the approval of more than half of the voters.)
Political Data Inc, a nonpartisan election data contributor. According to Paul Mitchell, vice president of the Democratic Party, even if the overall turnout reaches 60%, there are few plans to expel Mr. Newsom due to the large number of Democratic voters.
This is a different scenario than in 2003, when Republicans weren’t a very small percentage of voters and elections didn’t go down so clearly in line with party policy, said Rafael Sonen, executive director of the Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs. Shane said. California State University, Los Angeles.
Later, it was more common to hear Democrats oppose the Democratic governor, Sonenshain said. And Schwarzenegger had a cross-passage charm as a moderate Republican and movie star.
“Arnold was a fully accepted alternative for many Democrats,” Sonenshain said. “Today, the party line is much more difficult.”
Political experts have been saying for weeks that Newsom’s success in defeating recalls depends on increasing turnout in elections.
But for Davis, who was fighting Schwarzenegger’s star power and his own low approval rating, “it wasn’t clear if it was about turnout in 2003,” Sonenshain said. ..
In fact, 61% of Californians voted in the 2003 Recall Election. This is a lot higher than you would normally expect in a special election. And Mr. Davis still lost.