Over the past few weeks, analysts and political advisers have repeatedly told me that Monday’s vote will cost $ 600 million and will create a parliament that looks almost like Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s dissolution in August. Told.
[Read: Trudeau Will Remain Prime Minister, but Falls Short of a Majority]
It was a very accurate forecast. At the time I was writing this, some votes were still being cast and even more were not counted. However, Mr Trudeau’s Liberal Party had 156 seats on Monday, one less than the one he won in 2019, and the Conservative Party had the same 121 seats as before.
The ranking may change slightly. But given that Mr Trudeau called for a vote to regain the majority at the House of Commons lost in 2019, it wasn’t voted anywhere without explicitly stating those terms.
There are a few things you can tell immediately from the results.
What is Erin O’Toole’s political future?
Erin O’Toole, who became a conservative leader about a year ago, took the party in a new, more modest direction and expanded its appeal. He rejected a number of conservative positions that were once core, including opposition to the carbon tax. And during the campaign, he conditionally overturned many publicly announced promises to lift the ban on 1,500 models of Mr Trudeau’s military assault rifle.
His campaign was significantly better organized and more disciplined than the one carried out by former party leader Andrew Shear in 2019. Still, it didn’t make a profit.
On Tuesday morning, Mr. Outur devoted much of his concession speech to outlining how to tackle the Liberal Party in the next election. But Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Mount Royal University in Calgary, told me that Mr. Outur had to sell himself to his party before that happened.
“He couldn’t invade 905 in Ontario,” said Professor Bratt, referring to the area code on the outskirts of Toronto. “As someone riding in the area, he said he could win there.”
According to Professor Bratt, Mr. Outur is likely to argue that it would be beneficial to keep him the leader of the next vote. This is what the history of past Conservative successes shows. But that can be a difficult sale.
“Is there any advantage to giving him a second run?” He said. “I think voters might like it. I don’t know about the Conservatives. They’re a tough party.”
And Justin Trudeau?
After Mr Trudeau led the party to two consecutive minority governments, the Liberal Party began to doubt the value of their leaders, who surprisingly pushed them into power in 2015 with an overwhelming majority. Is not it. It is unlikely that Lori Turnbull, a political scientist at Dalhousie University in Halifax, told me last night.
“There’s really something in the argument that Trudeau made the Liberal Party his own,” she said. “And loyalty to the party is really loyalty to him. When everyone pledges loyalty to the leader, it’s like the leader can’t make mistakes and people gather around him. “
Professor Turnbull said it’s hard to remember when the government, which sensed political games, continued to call for early voting during the campaign.
It’s hard to remember any kind of election that was hit by the general delight in Canada. But Elizabeth Goodyear Grant, a professor of political science at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ontario, said in an email that Canada wasn’t an election-hating country, but it’s definitely against early voting.
“From a political point of view, voters want accountability and a’voice’. So it seems a bit strange not to seize the opportunity to exercise them, “she writes. “Even if the results are relatively similar to the 2019 federal elections, we’re not asking,’What was the election for?’ You can also choose to see it as an advocate for the path we are on. “
Is this the future of Canadian voting?
Allan Tupper of the University of British Columbia’s Department of Political Science told me this morning that there were no clear signs that the wide-area voting patterns found in the last two elections would change.
“The pattern of support is very strong,” he said. “To get Canadians out of these patterns, we need to make a big difference in political issues, political issues, and political values.”
Until that happens, Professor Tapper said there is likely to be more such elections in which major parties exchange a small number of seats without substantially changing their relative positions to each other.
“It just means that elections will be a game of inches,” he said.
Originally from Windsor, Ontario, Ian Austen is educated in Toronto, lives in Ottawa, and has reported on Canada in the New York Times for the past 16 years. Follow him on Twitter @ianrausten.
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