Bayern Munich vs PSG Prediction: PSG faces an uphill battle as they prepare to face Bayern Munich in the second leg of their Champions League Round of 16 matchups. Having lost the first leg 1-0 at home, the Parisians will need a heroic effort to overturn the deficit and progress to the next round.
Bayern Munich dominated the first leg and could have scored more than the lone Kingsley Coman goal, leaving PSG with a difficult task on both the scoreline and on the field. PSG’s injury woes have compounded their problems, with Neymar ruled out of the match due to an ankle injury and Achraf Hakimi dealing with a hamstring issue. Several other players are also sidelined, leaving PSG with a depleted squad.
As PSG and their Qatari owners continue to pursue European glory, the onus will be on Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe to engineer a historic comeback against one of the world’s most formidable clubs. While Bayern Munich is currently atop the Bundesliga table, PSG’s star-studded lineup has the potential to produce moments of magic and turn the tie around. Nevertheless, overcoming the odds against a team of Bayern Munich’s caliber will be no small feat for PSG.
Bayern Munich vs PSG odds
With PSG trailing by a goal and playing away from home, they face a challenging task in the upcoming match against Bayern Munich. This is reflected in the betting market, where Bayern is heavily favored to win the match in regulation and advance to the quarterfinals with odds of 1/6.
Despite the low-scoring 1-0 result in the first leg, oddsmakers anticipate a more high-scoring affair in the upcoming match. Both teams are favored to score, and the over/under for total goals has been set at 3.5, with the over option offering more lucrative odds.
This suggests that the oddsmakers believe that PSG will need to take an attacking approach to the match in order to overturn the deficit, potentially leading to a more open and exciting match. However, this could also play into the hands of Bayern Munich, who are renowned for their attacking prowess and will be looking to seal their progression to the next round with a convincing victory.
to score Y / N
|-225 / +160||-227 / +142||4/9, 13/8||1.44 / 2.60|
|Over / Under|
|+100 / -140||+107 / -135||4/9, 13/8||2.15 / 1.64|
Bayern Munich vs PSG match facts
- Date: Wednesday, March 8
- Kickoff Time: 3:00 pm ET / 8:00 pm GMT / 7:00 am AEDT (Thu, March 9)
- Location: Allianz Arena (Munich, Germany)
- Official: Daniele Orsato (ITA)
- First leg: PSG 0-1 Bayern Munich (Feb. 14, 2023)
Bayern Munich vs PSG team news
Bayern Munich will be without Benjamin Pavard due to his suspension for a late red card in the first leg, but the club’s injury news is mostly positive. Noussair Mazraoui is nearing a return from his post-COVID heart inflammation, but may not be fully match fit, while Sadio Mane has returned to action after coming off the bench in consecutive league games. However, Manuel Neuer and Lucas Hernandez are out for the season with injuries. In Pavard’s absence, there is speculation that Josip Stanisic could be included in a back-three with Dayot Upamecano and Matthijs de Ligt.
PSG, on the other hand, are facing a significant injury crisis. Neymar is out with an ankle injury, while Achraf Hakimi is also recovering from a hamstring injury and his availability for the match is uncertain. Presnel Kimpembe is out for the season due to an Achilles injury, which has further depleted the PSG back line and forced Danilo to play out of position. However, there is some good news as Marquinhos and Nordi Mukiele, who were withdrawn from the previous match against Nantes, are fit to play. PSG boss Christophe Galtier had only eight substitutes for their weekend win over Nantes in Ligue 1 play. The eventAttendanceMode field can be used to indicate whether the match is being played with fans in attendance or not. The image field can be used to provide an image related to the match. The offers field can be used to indicate any available ticket or merchandise offers related to the match. The description field can be used to provide additional information about the match. The organizer field can be used to indicate the organizing entity for the match, such as the UEFA Champions League.
Bayern Munich vs PSG key stats
- Since their group stage exit in the 2002/03 Champions League, Bayern Munich have reached the quarterfinals in all but four UCL competitions, including just one Round of 16 exit in the last decade.
- PSG have not kept a single clean sheet in Champions League play this season across seven games against Bayern Munich, Juventus, Benfica, and Maccabi Haifa, conceding 10 goals.
- In five Champions League matches against opponents not named Maccabi Haifa, PSG have just six goals scored, including four from Kylian Mbappe and one from Lionel Messi.
Bayern Munich vs PSG prediction
- Moneyline lean: Bayern Munich (-115)
- Score prediction: Bayern 2-1 PSG
- Who will advance: Bayern Munich (-600)
While second legs have been known to produce surprising results, PSG’s depleted squad makes it unlikely that they can keep pace with Bayern Munich’s strong team. The Parisians will be missing key players across the field, and they have struggled to keep up with Europe’s best this season.
Despite the recent good form of Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe, who have performed well in consecutive Ligue 1 matches against Marseille and Nantes, PSG have not been able to translate their domestic success into European matches in recent seasons. As a result, it is becoming increasingly difficult to have confidence in their attacking abilities, regardless of recent performances.
Bayern Munich vs PSG: Best bet
- Pick: Bayern Munich to win first half
- Odds: +125 (BetMGM)
Unfortunately, the odds on both teams to score and over 2.5 total goals are low, with little value to be found. Instead, a more specific bet is recommended: betting on Bayern Munich to win the first half. PSG may panic if they are still trailing on aggregate after halftime, but Bayern should dominate the early proceedings.
In the first leg in Paris, Bayern controlled the first half before coming under late pressure from PSG, which they ultimately withstood. It is likely to be a similar situation in the second leg, as Bayern are known for being the best first-half team in Europe. Their expected goals numbers also drop considerably after halftime, which is a rare occurrence.
Bayern Munich vs PSG prop bet
- Pick: Jamal Musiala to score or assist a goal
- Odds: ODDS (FanDuel)
- Pick: Alphonso Davies to score or assist a goal
- Odds: ODDS (FanDuel)
The left flank of Bayern Munich’s attack has been devastating in the past few months, and they are primed for an exceptional matchup once again. Nobody in any of Europe’s top five leagues has completed more dribbles since 2023 began than Bayern left-back Alphonso Davies, and not only is he creating a volume of chances with his 41 successful take-ons, but he’s doing so with efficiency as well at a 72 percent success rate.
Just behind Davies in that regard is winger Jamal Musiala, whose 26 completed dribbles since the start of 2023 puts him 13th in all of Europe, and with a 62 percent success rate he’s also doing so at a high level of efficiency. Add in Kingsley Coman who scored the only goal in the opener operating on that left flank, and this Bayern side is devastating.
With Achraf Hakimi facing a late fitness test to start at right-back, this is a matchup that Bayern will surely look to exploit, either against a less than fully fit Hakimi or a backup likely playing out of position. The only caveat to this is Musiala could potentially be sacrificed to bring Sadio Mane back into the starting lineup, so keep an eye on the team news before confirming a selection.