[Updated: Oct 4, 2021] Merck stock rise
Stock price Merck (NYSE: MRK) After the company announced that Mornupyravir pills would reduce the risk of hospitalization and death for mild to moderate Covid-19 patients by 50%, it rose 8% to the $ 81 level on Friday, October 1. rice field. The data are so promising that Merck is currently suspending new patient enrollment and is moving forward seeking regulatory approval.  Once approved, it could be a milestone for the entire healthcare sector. In fact, stock prices of vaccine makers such as Moderna plummeted 11% in trading on Friday. This is because people prefer pills to Covid-19 vaccine jabs. The need for booster shots may not be so important in the long run, but Merck’s Covid-19 oral tablets may now be a multi-billion dollar opportunity for the company. Vaccines help prevent the capture of the virus, while oral pills are antiviral and help treat the virus. However, if pills can reduce the risk of Covid-19, people may be less motivated to take vaccine jabs. According to media reports, the U.S. government has previously agreed to pay patients $ 700, and Merck’s margin could be as high as 60%, meaning a profit of over $ 400 per patient. increase. This pricing may not be stable in large and different countries, but it does provide an idea of Merck’s potential revenue ($ 7 billion in revenue for 10 million patients). 
But now that MRK stocks have risen 11% in a week, will it continue to rise, or is MRK stocks imminent? MRK Stock Average Return According to Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which uses 10-year historical data to identify trends in a company’s stock price About 4% Then next After 1 month (21 trading days) A 11% increase compared to the previous week (5 trading days), which means stocks are likely to continue to rise in the short term. In fact, the opportunity for Covid-19 pills is enormous for Merck, and MRK stocks are very likely to profit much more than 4% (according to past performance). But if you are interested in holding MRK shares for a shorter or longer term, how will your returns be carried? You can test and test your answers and many other combinations with the Trefis Machine Learning Engine. Merck Stock Price Forecast.. You can test your recovery potential at different time intervals, such as quarterly, monthly, or even one day.
For more information on Merck’s past returns and a comparison of returns with peers, see Merck’s Stock Returns.
Merck Inventory Moves: Trefis AI Engine Q & A
Q1: Is the expected price of Merck shares higher after the price cut?
answer: Consider two situations.
Case 1: Merck’s inventory drops by more than -5% in a week
Case 2: Merck’s inventory increases by more than 5% in a week
Are Merck stock price forecasts higher than in the month following Case 1 or Case 2?
After Case 1, MRK stock fares rise, Case 1 (the stock just suffered a 5% loss last week) has an expected return of 4% the following month (21 trading days), while Case 2 has an expected return of -0.5%. This means a price forecast of $ 85 for Case 1 and $ 81 for Case 2, using the October 4, 2021 MRK market price of $ 81.40.
By comparison, the S & P 500 showed an expected return of 3.1% on the next 21 trading days of Case 1, with an expected return of only 0.5% in Case 2. Expected return on the S & P 500 is rising or falling, as detailed on the dashboard.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Merck stock forecasts can change after a certain profit or loss occurs over a period of time.
Q2: Will patience be paid?
answer: If you buy and hold Merck shares, short-term fluctuations will be offset over time, and long-term positive trends will be in your favor, at least if the company is otherwise strong. ..
Overall, according to the data and calculations of the Trefis machine learning engine, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For MRK stocks, the next N-day return after a -5% change in the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below along with the S & P 500 return.
You can try the engine and see what this table of Merck looks like after a big loss last week, a month, or a quarter.
Q3: What will happen to the average return after the rise after waiting for a while?
answer: As detailed in the previous question, the average return after a rise is naturally lower than after a fall. Interestingly, however, if stock prices have risen in the last few days, it’s better to avoid short-term bets. More specifically, after the S & P500 has risen 5% in 5 days, the average return on the next 7 trading days will be negative. Nominal profits can only be expected if you continue to invest for at least 2 weeks (10 trading days). However, this average return figure will rise to 11.7% in one year (252 trading days).
Testing Merck stock trends yourself is very powerful. It’s great to hear how the results compare to your own intuition.
[Updated: Oct 1, 2021] Merck acquires Acceleron
Merck (NYSE: MRK) Yesterday, it announced that it would acquire Acceleron Pharma, a biopharmacy company focused on rare diseases, for $ 11.5 billion in cash and debt. Acceleron has multiple potentially blockbuster drugs in its pipeline. To name a few, Sotatercept is in late-stage clinical trials for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension and is estimated to have peak sales of over $ 2 billion.Another drug-Lebrosil (partnership with Bristol Myers Squibb)
Currently, MRK inventories have been squeezed recently as sales of some medicines are sluggish and they rely heavily on a single drug, Keytruda, for revenue growth. The acquisition of Acceleron is seen as a plus for Merck as it strengthens its cardiovascular portfolio and provides the company with several potential blockbuster drugs. The $ 180 per share price paid by Merck is still on the line with a premium of 34% above the $ 134 level where Acceleron shares were traded a few weeks ago. Overall, the deal could eliminate some of Merck’s growth trajectory concerns and increase multiples of future deals.
We continue to believe that MRK stocks are undervalued and Merck Rating Based on the adjusted EPS forecast of $ 5.65 and a P / E multiple of about 16 times 2021, it is $ 91 per share, which could be more than 20% higher than the current $ 75.
[Updated: Sep 21, 2021] Merck shares are undervalued
Stock price Merck (NYSE: MRK) In September 2020, it reached a 52-week high of about $ 82. Since then, it has been in the range of $ 70-80 for most of last year and is currently trading at around $ 72. We believe MRK stocks are undervalued at current levels and investors can take advantage of the recent decline as a buying opportunity for long-term profits. MRK inventories have fallen by more than 15% last year or so, despite a 6% increase in revenue over the same period. Over a longer period, MRK stocks have risen just 28% from the $ 56 level seen at the end of 2017, and the S & P 500 has risen 63%, well below the broader market. Merck’s earnings growth was partially offset by a decrease in P / E multiples, resulting in slower inventories …