With his wide face, pale blue eyes, and a fixed smile, Olaf Scholz, who turned from the German Treasury Minister to a future Merkel successor, did not have the most flattering nickname.
But the last laugh may be to his opponents, as the Social Democratic Party (SPD) has opened a decisive lead over the incumbent Christian Democratic Party.
In just one week to go to the German elections on September 26, he becomes the former mayor of Hamburg, a “hero from zero” who lost the leadership of his party in a left-right battle just two years ago. Most likely to lead the Union to the success of Angela Merkel-the most difficult act to follow in European politics after her grand 16-year mission as a leader.
In the latest poll, Scholz’s SPD rose slightly to 25% and the CDU to 22% from last Sunday’s debate, but Greens is still in third place with 15-16%. Psychologically, the momentum is in Scholz – like the post-Merkel prime minister, most voters prefer to be “suitable for the office”.
Scholz is already proud to defeat the long curse of SPD’s decline. This was the last time the party came to power when Gerhard Schroeder was in charge during the Tony Blair era and returned to lead the competition with Merkel’s choice Armin Laschet.
Following a long stay in the Bundestag, Merkel’s final “grand coalition” succeeded in the experience of the mayor in a city in northern Germany, where Schortz promoted a controversial plan to revive a shabby port area. Played the role of Minister of Finance.
The pandemic set his ambitions on a national stage-and gave voters skeptical of SPD’s ability to reconcile the city’s left-wing voters with the rocking centrists the opportunity to introduce themselves.
Having money to donate helps – the £ 675bn borrowing plan to save a living was introduced by Scholz as “the big bazooka needed to get the job done.” His nickname moved to “Bazooka Man”, an improvement over the old one.
With Merkel’s domestic agenda losing momentum, growing dissatisfaction with housing pressures, widening gaps in transportation and opportunities and lack of infrastructure in the German region, and deepening discontinuities between the former East and West, voters seek change A combination of solidity (he has represented Merkel on behalf of Merkel as one of the highest opposition figures in the government) and a more left-wing economic and financial outlook.
His themes are raising the minimum wage, dealing with delays in pension reform, tackling housing pressures that have led to fierce court battles, and regaining “respect” for left-behind voters.
His enemies were far more to him because of Scholz’s success as a metamorphic centrist (he moved from the left to the center of the party in the 90s, which he called “idealistic detox”). He argues that he was held hostage to the grassroots of the radical Corbinite. His lack of experience with foreign and security issues needs to feature at least three parties, whatever their exact results, are looking at their own internal departments and all influential roles. Will cause coalition problems that may be.
“They will strangle him with his own contradictions,” one critic predicts. When I put this in a close ally, he returns the blinking emoji, the meme of Smurf, in text and adds: Scholz has previously squared a circle. “
On the other side of the aisle, Rachette had a hard time finding his stride. However, he led the failure to victory over time, seizing control of the powerful North Rhine-Westphalia from SPD and ending a series of Merkel’s failures in the 2017 local elections. increase.
He won the Prime Minister’s race nomination, dodging the internal “bazooka” from CDU’s intense right-wing Bavarian coalition partner.
But this campaign was horrifying for Rachette. Rachette was alert after the devastating summer floods and laughed with his aides during the speech of the country’s president.Scholz accepted a playful poster comparing Merkel with a declaration that “he has what he needs to be Prime Minister Madame,” but Scholz’s image is Frohnatur Consensus-focused rhinelands and (cheerful chaps) from increasingly aggressive campaigns are looking at the odds badly.
The organized production of young Christian Democrats roaring “Armin Laschet for the Prime Minister” to the White Stripes’ “Seven Nation Army” song hopes for a coalition with the Greens. It was a comical sign of a campaign where we couldn’t tell if we were targeting. It is intended for young, moderately progressive voters, or a pivot to the economic rights of his party.
In the second of the three “Toriel” (trio) television debates earlier this week, the Greens Annalena Baerbock (3rd) also appeared in the contest, attacking Rachette.
He argued that a huge fraud in the collapse of the wirecard fintech company was triggered and that ongoing police investigations into the holes in the German money laundering prevention arrangement were not well reflected in Scholz’s grip.
“If my finance minister (of Rhineland) works like your finance minister (of the country), we will have serious problems.”
But the tense confrontation is that the story of this important German election is due to the resurrection of the centre-left SPD party, which was voting nearby earlier in the year, probably from the succession of the internal Social Democratic Party to Merkel. It reminds me of the move. Death 15 percent.
economistElection Prediction Mode gives Scholz a 3 to 1 chance to lead the largest political party beyond Scholz’s CDU. Scholz was recently asked what he could do better than Merkel and replied, “Run in the park in Potsdam and row in the Alster (river) in Hamburg.”
A nifty answer suggests that while appealing to Germany’s divided geography, he has the energy of newcomers to update Germany in the post.Mutti era.
Boring old Shorzomat Now known to his internal team as “Lazaro”. And that’s already some kind of victory.
Ann McElvoy economist.. The election forecast model can be found here.