After a sunny start in September, many of us hope the late summer sun will continue.
So will another heat wave arrive at our shore?
Here’s everything you need to know.
What is a heat wave?
According to the UK Meteorological Agency, heat waves in the UK are recorded somewhere for at least three consecutive days, when the daily maximum temperature reaches or exceeds the heat wave temperature threshold.
Temperature thresholds depend on where you are in the country.
Is there a heat wave?
It has been reported that the Atlantic Hurricane Rally will bring mini heat waves here in the UK, but no, there are no heat wave forecasts at this time.
Stephen Dixon, a spokesman for the Met Office, said:
“From now on, the impact of the former hurricane” rally “will be fairly limited. Higher pressures could be applied later this week, but are not currently set to heat wave conditions by Met Office standards.
“The weather impact of the rally is over as far as we are concerned. It brought some uncertainty to the forecast at the end of last week, but it moved to Friday in the North Atlantic, and the rally went on weekends. How it has evolved, we are more confident about what the UK weather will be like this week. “
But this does not mean that things will get worse. Many parts of the South have temperatures above 20 ° C from Wednesday to Friday, while others hover in their late teens.
According to the British Meteorological Agency, the rainy areas are expected to merge into the south and center on Tuesday and then move north. It’s probably raining very heavily here. Mainly light rain elsewhere. Approaching the south.
On Wednesdays and Thursdays, there are irregular rains and drizzles from eastern England on Wednesdays. Then, until the end of Friday, clouds, strong winds, and heavy rains generally remained in good condition until the arrival of the western region.
What is the Japan Meteorological Agency’s long range weather forecast?
Friday, September 17-September 26
It is sunny and dry to cross the central and eastern parts on Friday. Rainfall, heavy winds in some places, and strong winds across the northwest initially gradually spread toward the southeast.
After weekends, there are signs of near-clear and dry weather in the southern and eastern regions. Cloud cover varies and sunny days continue, but there is a risk of fog at night.
To the northwest, it could probably rain, and to the southeast it could spread to other areas. These instability could spread throughout the UK.
Overall, temperatures can be above average, but can be cool nights, especially in the north.
Monday 27th September-Monday 11th October
During this period, my confidence is quite low. However, current signals suggest that a cyclone is northwest of Britain. This can lead to instability in the northwest and may also reduce the risk of storm conditions. In the southeast, the weather can be more subdued.
It is expected that the solution will be broader toward the end of October. Overall, rainfall is expected to be above average and temperatures are expected to be above average.
What about other forecasts?
The BBC’s weather forecast said:
Saturday, September 11th to Sunday, September 19th
Almost unstable weather with short dry spells
“On weekends and the first part of the new week, the weather in Britain is dominated by areas of weak cyclones that slowly flow from the southwest. These cloud things, bring rain zones to many areas, and are heavy in some places. It will be a little above the national average temperature. After that, a short dry spell can be in the middle of the week as the cyclone moves eastward in northern Europe. Frontline for the weekend And cyclones should bring moist, windier weather and cooler Atlantic air for everyone. “
Monday 20th September to Sunday 26th September
Fronts are variable but warm
“The last full week of September has undergone some changes in recent updates, but we are more confident because of the increased consensus between computer models. High pressures occur in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. It is most likely to occur and can also be prolonged in the southwestern subtropical Atlantic Ocean, which opens the door to a low pressure near Iceland called the “Iceland Low Pressure” and moves closer to the United Kingdom. increase. Unstable and fairly variable patterns are expected to continue throughout the week, fronts bring rain spells and cool days, and occasional high-pressure ridges mix things with dry sunny breaks.
“Temperatures tend to fluctuate daily, but are slightly above average, because the high pressure to the east slows the low-pressure system as it approaches Europe. It gets warmer as they slow down. The southwesterly winds provide the UK with some subtropical Atlantic air. As the North Atlantic air flows in from the northwest, there is a cool spell behind the cold front.
Another scenario is a powerful high pressure system built overhead, extending from the east to the United Kingdom or incorporated from the southwest. This will be a dry, mostly sunny, and warm pattern as the southerly winds bring air from Spain and France. Support for this pattern is fading, but it’s still probably 25 percent likely. “
According to Netweather’s long range weather forecast:
Monday, September 20-Sunday, September 26
“At this time of year, high pressures predominate in Scandinavia and low pressures appear to predominate in Iceland. As a result, southerly winds frequently blow to the British Isles, but usually very south to air masses. Will not raise.
“As a result, temperatures this week are not exceptional, but generally on the warm side. Rainforest zones are regularly pushed from the North Atlantic, but progress to the northeast tends to be limited. However, in western Scotland and western Northern Ireland, it can be persistent and heavy, and can slide east in the south of England and Wales, especially in the southwest.
In most of the eastern part of England, the weather is mostly dry and calm, with varying amounts of clouds, but the eastern part of England, especially the southeastern part, tends to be mostly sunny. At the end of the week, cyclones may begin to invade more from the west, bringing rain to the east, especially through England, but confidence in this is fairly low. Some lightning outbreaks can occur primarily in the southwest.
“Average temperatures are projected to be higher than long-term normals from 1981 to 2010, about 2 degrees higher in central and eastern Scotland and northern England, but nearly 1 degree higher in southern England and Northern Ireland. I am.
“Total rainfall is projected to be near normal in Northern Ireland, western Scotland, most of Wales, and southwest England. Elsewhere, especially in the east coast region north of East Anglia. They are generally lower than normal.
“Sunshine totals are projected to be below normal in Northern Ireland, Wales and southwest England, but above normal in most eastern parts of the United Kingdom. Probably the largest positive sunshine anomaly in East Anglia. Will be. “
Week 3: Monday 27th September-Sunday October 3rd
“I’m less confident during this period, but at least at the beginning of this period, Scandinavian highs seem to be strong, but lows to Iceland are a little closer to the east and can be changed from south to southwest. Introducing the British Islands.
Therefore, temperatures continue to be higher than normal, and in general, rainforest zones move more frequently from the North Atlantic and more freely from the southwest to the northeast. That said, the rainforest zone will probably be lighter and more mottled as it heads towards the protected northeastern region. A bright interlude between the rainforests can cause some heavy and localized thunderstorms to the west and south.
Later in the week, winds switch from west to southwest, creating high pressures to the south, drier, more sunny weather towards the southeast, and the possibility of a more traditional northwest-southeast split. there is.
“Average temperatures are expected to show similar anomalies as last week, with much in Scotland and northern England about 2 ° C higher than average, while southern England and Northern Ireland are close to 1 ° C. Totals are expected to be near normal, except in eastern Scotland and northeastern England. Sunshine totals are probably below average in the west, above average in the east, and above average in northern Scotland. “