opinion | Will Modi mediate in Russia-Ukraine crisis?
The whole world is watching India at a turning point in history. The war between Russia and Ukraine has entered its 38th day and on Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Delhi. Modi told Lavrov that India was ready to make any contribution to the peace efforts between Russia and Ukraine. Lavrov had brought a special message for Modi from Russian President Vladimir Putin.
While Russia wants India to mediate in Ukraine’s crisis, America wants India to stay away from Russia and join the Western bloc opposing Putin. Britain also wants India to stand with those European countries which are opposing the Russian invasion. China, whose foreign minister Wang Yi suddenly visited Delhi, wants peace with India. Pakistan’s troubled Prime Minister Imran Khan has been repeatedly praising India’s ‘independent’ foreign policy and wants his own country like India not to come under any external pressure.
“Indian foreign policies are characterized by independence and concentration on genuine national legitimate interests… If India wants to buy anything from Russia, we are ready to discuss it”, the Russian foreign minister said in Delhi.
Lavrov’s remarks came in the wake of controversial remarks by US Deputy National Security Adviser for International Economics Dalip Singh about India, Russia and China.
Dalip Singh, who is the point person for the Biden administration on international sanctions, told reporters in Delhi after meeting Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla that “… I don’t think anyone will believe that if China is once again in real control.” If the line is breached, Russia will come running to India’s defense. In diplomatic circles, while such comments are not considered polite, it is outright a threat.
On Friday, India sent a clear message to the US when External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar called on Lavrov, who also met Prime Minister Modi. There can be no greater message than this in diplomatic language and nuances. India’s message was: As far as its foreign policy is concerned, we will not panic. To reiterate PM Modi’s phrase, “We will not look at anyone, nor will we lower our eyes while meeting anyone. We will look in the eyes and speak.”
Speaking about possible Chinese encroachment on the LAC, the US tried to create fear in India’s mind by comparing the Russia-Ukraine crisis to the India-China border issue. US officials may have forgotten that India is not Ukraine, and China knows this, and it is better that America understands this. Prime Minister Modi’s vision, intention and policies are clear. India will work for its own benefit and will not come under any external pressure.
The US deputy NSA, who commented, may have thought that India would bow down and refrain from making friends with Russia, but India did not shirk from its stand. On the oil deal with India, the Russian FM said, “We will be ready to supply to India any goods that India wants to buy… A way will be found to impose illegal and unilateral sanctions.”
India is the world’s third largest oil importer and consumer, and it had been buying Russian oil through spot tenders since the Russia-Ukraine war broke out on February 24. Since that date, India has bought at least 13 million barrels of Russian oil. A huge discount in 2021 compared to the 16 million barrels brought in from Russia during the year.
While current US and Western sanctions against Russia do not prevent other countries from buying Russian oil, a senior US administration official recently said that “India could put itself at great risk if there is a significant increase in Russian oil purchases”. The US has no objection to India buying Russian oil provided it buys it at a discount without significantly increasing its purchases compared to previous years.”
Russia, on its part, wants to intensify its bilateral trade with India due to US and Western sanctions. Lavrov said on Friday that Russia is moving towards doing ruble-rupee trade with India to bypass Western sanctions. He said that ruble-rupee trade with India started years ago and now efforts will be intensified to circumvent Western payment systems.
In short, India will pursue its foreign policy keeping its national interests first. Bullying or intimidation of any kind by outside forces will not work. On its part, India has also told Russia that an early cessation of hostilities in Ukraine would help in restoring peace. Lavrov said, “India is an important country, and if India (Ukraine) wants to play a role in resolving the crisis, it can. India has taken a just and rational approach to international problems, and it is committed to this. May support the (peaceful) process of sorts.
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