The WTI benchmark has been revised in recent months after reaching a high of $ 74 / barrel, driven by OPEC’s easing of production restraints and an uncertain demand environment due to a pandemic. According to the US Energy Information Administration’s STEO (Short-term Energy Outlook), the WTI benchmark tends to drop from $ 65 / barrel in 2021 to $ 62 / barrel in 2022. ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) There may be a low rise in the short term.ConocoPhillips based on stock price data trends
But how do these numbers change if you are interested in holding ConocoPhillips shares for a shorter or longer term? You can test and test your answers and many other combinations with the Trefis Machine Learning Engine. Potential rise in ConocoPhillips stock After a fall. You can test your recovery potential at different time intervals, such as quarterly, monthly, or just one day.
Machine Learning Engine-Try It For Yourself:
If COP shares moved -5% in 5 trading days. after that Over the next 21 trading days, COP shares will average It is 2.1% and the probability of getting a positive return during this period is 56.7%.
It has also been witnessed historically, given the -5% movement of stocks over five trading days. Excess revenue Over the next 21 trading days, it will be 1.2% compared to the S & P500 and the probability of a positive excess return is 49.2%.
Understanding some fun scenarios, FAQs, and ConocoPhillips stock price fluctuations:
Question 1: Is the average return on ConocoPhillips shares higher after the decline?
answer: Consider two situations.
Case 1: ConocoPhillips inventory drops by more than -5% in a week
Case 2: ConocoPhillips inventory increased by more than 5% in a week
Is the average return on ConocoPhillips shares higher than in the month following Case 1 or Case 2?
COP stock Fares after Case 2 will be betterIn Case 1 (the stock just lost 5% last week), the average return for the following month (21 trading days) was 2.1%, while the average return for Case 2 was 2.5%.
By comparison, the S & P 500 has an average return of 3.1% on the next 21 trading days of Case 1, with an average return of only 0.5% in Case 2. This is explained in detail in the dashboard. Average return of S & P 500 after falling or rising..
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above and see for yourself how the ConocoPhillips stock may behave after a certain gain or loss over a period of time.
Question 2: Do you pay patience?
answer: If you buy and hold ConocoPhillips shares, short-term fluctuations will be offset and long-term positive trends are expected to favor you-at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to the data and calculations of the Trefis machine learning engine, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For COP stocks, the next N-day return after a -5% change in the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below along with the S & P 500 return.
Question 3: What will happen to the average return after the rise after waiting for a while?
answer: As detailed in the previous question, the average return after a rise is naturally lower than after a fall. Interestingly, if stocks have risen in the last few days, it is better to avoid short-term bets on most stocks. However, COP strains seem to be an exception to this general observation.
It is very powerful to change the input in the chart above and test the trend of ConocoPhillips stock yourself.
ConocoPhillips shares can trend along a wider market, but it’s helpful to see how other companies in the industry are stacking up. ConocoPhillips Stock Comparison With Peers summarizes how COP compares to peers for key metrics. You can find more useful comparisons like this in Peer Comparison.
See all Trefis Featured Analysis When download Trefis data here