When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Vladimir Putin and his inner circle were not the only ones who expected a march to Russia’s rapid victory. Many independent observers have done so.
Instead, Ukraine remained strong.
Ukrainian citizens are showing resilience in terrible suffering. The army prevented Russia from taking over Kyiv and regained some positions in the northeast. And the Russian army lost a lot because of its overly ambitious strategy (which clearly reflects Putin’s wishes rather than military reality), which left the army thin and vulnerable to counterattacks. I suffered.
Russia’s early failure explains the new willingness to negotiate peace and the promised withdrawal from Kyiv. US officials, of course, expressed skepticism yesterday as to whether Putin was truly open to ending the war. However, Russia seems to have actually narrowed its goals in response to the battlefield struggle. That’s good news for Ukraine.
At the same time, Russia’s new strategy creates potential challenges. Russia appears to be increasingly concentrating its efforts on fewer regions, especially the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.
“The war has made a big shift to a particular front,” Michael Coffman of CNA’s Russian Studies Program told me. “For Russia, it’s much more rational.”
Today’s newsletter discusses the Battle of Dombås. Donbus could increase the focus of the war in the coming weeks.
Contents
Why donbus is important
The Donbus region on the border with Russia occupies about 9 percent of Ukraine’s land. Many of its inhabitants have long felt ties to Russia, at least as much as the rest of Ukraine.
After Russia invaded an area near Ukraine in 2014 and annexed it — Crimea — Moscow-backed separatists in Donbus launched their own civil war against the Ukrainian government. Separatists have declared the formation of two separatist republics, and the battle has been sporadic for the past eight years. Last month Putin recognized both republics.
Focusing on Donbus has multiple advantages for Russia. In the last few weeks, territorial takeover has already progressed. It can retain its territory without the long, exposed supply lines that Ukraine has successfully attacked elsewhere. The battle for Donbus also gives Russia the opportunity to surround and destroy most of the Ukrainian army. More than one-third of all Ukrainian troops are in the area and may be fighting both separatists and Russian troops.
Russia seems to be on the verge of making such scissors around these Ukrainian troops coming from both the east and the south. Experts call this Russian advance a “overpass” from Crimea to Donbus.
The city of Mariupol in southern Donbus is part of this story. Putin and his military planners attacked very cruelly because it is the largest city of potential overpasses that Mariupol has not yet controlled. There are also major ports.
(This Times story examines Russia’s attempts to starve the people of Mariupol, including the physical and psychological sacrifices of hunger. Story.)
Some analysts, such as Koffman, believe that Russia will have a hard time maintaining the overpass for long periods of time. That army will face many of the same challenges that have plagued it elsewhere in Ukraine-dedicated opposition scattered across large territories.
Others consider it likely to be a sustainable overpass. Keir Giles of the Center for Conflict Research and Research in the United Kingdom said: “It can maintain pressure on Ukraine longer than Ukraine can maintain Western interest in supporting it in the fight for freedom.”
New risk
In any case, Putin may try to use the ceasefire negotiations as a way to contain Russia’s currently controlled territory, and soon, including overpasses. The outlook is worried about some experts who want to see Putin defeated. “We are in the next moment of serious danger over this conflict,” Frederick Cagan, a military expert at the American Enterprise Institute, told me.
Kagan argues that if the West pressures Ukraine to accept a ceasefire that leaves the overpass intact, Ukraine will become a broken country. It will be separated from many citizens and from the economically important coal and natural gas resources of the east. Many parts of Central Ukraine are vulnerable to Russian attacks and turmoil.
“If you allow the Russians under the ceasefire facade to take control of the line, that’s exactly what I’m worried about,” Kagan added.
The war has been surprisingly successful for Ukraine so far, but it still faces great risks. “I think many people in the West have a stronger starry eye than Ukrainians,” Koffman said. “I suspect that both sides are ready for peace, because both sides of the war still have battlefield opportunities.”
Related: “It’s always wise to treat your enemies as cany foxes, not crazy fools,” writes Brett Stevens. Putin’s goal is not to conquer the whole country, but to always occupy the east.
State of war
Ukraine details
the latest news
virus
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Art and ideas
Wedding year
After a two-year postponement of the pandemic, about 2.5 million couples are expected to marry in 2022, up from 2 million in 2019.
The large number of weddings makes it difficult to put together a dream ceremony. Caterers, venues, and even calligraphers are well booked, and some couples force friends to help with food and photos (or bribery vendors remove others from the list). ..
But neither logistical issues nor Covid’s uncertainties have stopped many. “I think we’re at a stage where we feel that whatever happens, it needs to happen,” Leslie Cribo Kaufman told the Times before this month’s wedding.
But for planners, an additional two years of savings allowed some couples to surpass the top at a wedding that looked like a reversion to the 1980s. This story by ivy manners explores this year’s trends, including gorgeous cakes, elaborate floral arrangements, and lace gowns.
Play, see, eat
What to cook
