Within 48 hours, you’ll know who will run the country’s most populous state next year.
If you need a review: Tuesday night, the election will end and ask Californians if Governor Gavin Newsom should be dismissed, and if so, who should replace him. If Newsom is recalled, the person sitting in his seat will serve the rest of his term set to end in January 2023.
Needless to say, this election is a big deal.
The possibility of Newsom’s expulsion is only the governor’s fourth recall to create ballots in US history. It could put Republicans at the helm of a highly democratic state that has not elected a Republican governor since 2006. And, as you’re sure you haven’t forgotten, elections are democracy, historic droughts, housing crises, etc. in our state.
The situation on the eve of the election is as follows.
Newsom’s lead in polls seems to be growing
In order for Newsum to continue working, more than half of the voters must mark “no” when asked if he should be recalled from the office.
As of Sunday night, an average poll compiled by FiveThirtyEight showed that 56% of Californians were against the recall and 42% were in favor of the recall. The averages compiled by RealClearPolitics were about the same.
Newsom’s key lead may be somewhat surprising if you remember how close the race was just a few months ago.
In July, polls at the Los Angeles Times and the University of California, Berkeley found that voter candidate recalls were split close to 50-50. When the same group released new data on Friday, 60% of voters opposed Newsom’s recall. This is more than 21 percent higher than the percentage you want to expel Newsome.
How Newsom probably went
So what has changed?
The Democratic Party has begun to pay attention. Many liberals probably thought the election was a long shot and could skip the vote before polling began suggesting that ballots arrived in the mailbox last month and Newsom could actually lose his job. Was there.
Registered Democrats outnumber California Republicans almost 2: 1. Therefore, the biggest threat to Newsom is that Democrats do not vote enough to counteract the Republican’s enthusiasm for expulsion.
But for the past two months, Newsom has shattered the idea that he is the only one standing between Californians and trumpism. The governor’s message is that, as my colleague Sean Hubler reports, everything from vaccine resistance to denial of climate change that feared California’s liberals about the last president is on the ballot. is.
His argument was helped by the advent of Larry Elder, a conservative talk radio host who once called Donald Trump’s election “God’s intervention.”
Newsom has also benefited from over $ 70 million in election donations, many of which were collected in July and August, allowing him to promote his enemies in the last few weeks.
What we know about returns so far
In this election, as in last year, mail ballots were sent to all of the state’s more than 22 million registered voters.
Therefore, voting will not end until tomorrow, but 35% of registered voters have already cast ballots as of Sunday night, according to election trackers at Political Data Inc., a nonpartisan supplier of voter information. ..
According to the data, about 4.1 million registered Democrats are mailing ballots, compared to 1.9 million Republicans and 1.8 million independents.
It is unclear how much these numbers will change in the next few days. There is still ballot in the mail, and many Republicans may wait to vote directly.
Some political experts predict that turnout can exceed 50% of registered voters, about twice what is normally expected in special elections.
Political Data Inc. “It’s mathematically almost impossible for Newsom to lose,” Paul Mitchell, vice president of California, told The New York Times if 60% of Californians voted.
The biggest question for both parties is whether to exceed that threshold.
What we are eating
Made with tomatoes, corn and zucchini, this one-pot Orzo is inspired by the abundance of late summer ingredients.
Where we are traveling
Today’s California travel tips come from reader Rebecca Farlander, who lives in Bellevue, Nevada. Rebecca writes:
One of my favorite destinations in Golden State is Shelter Island in San Diego. Stay at Humphreys, a great concert hall and beach hotel. Right next to the Pacific Ocean, I traveled there many summers to hear concerts from my favorite rock groups such as The Moody Blues. Walk along the coast and take in all the great things about SoCal.
What is your favorite place in California? Include your name and where you live so that you can share your tip in the newsletter. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com.
And some good news before you go
The bride and groom wore wetsuits for the wedding. She was white and painted like a black tie.
A couple who met in Los Angeles in 2018 opposed a more common ceremony on the beach and instead chose a wedding at the sea. Like the Pacific Ocean.
The groom was a surfer, and being underwater “connected us to something bigger,” the bride told the Times. Moreover, it was free.
So last month, the couple bobed on a surfboard off Hermosa Beach, exchanging vows and silicone rings.
The groom told the Times: They were like our guests celebrating with us. “
thank you for reading. I’ll be back tomorrow. — Soumya
PS is here Today’s mini crosswordAnd clues: where are they … (5 characters).