What is a conference board (CB)?
The Conference Board (CB) is a non-profit research organization that distributes important economic information to peer-to-peer business members. Founded in 1916, this member-led economic think tank is a widely cited private source of business intelligence.
- The Conference Board (CB) is a non-profit research organization that distributes important economic information to peer-to-peer business members.
- Any company, large or small, can apply for membership in the Conference Board.
- The Conference Board is distributed to 2,000 companies in various industries and regions and is best known in the ConsumerConfidence Index® (CCI).
- Board data, including diverse and exclusive resources, provides essential tools for industry and business leaders around the world.
Understand the meeting committee
Based in New York, CB has offices in Belgium, China and Canada, aiming to delve into the issues companies are tackling on a daily basis. These everyday concerns may include top-line growth in the changing economic environment and corporate governance standards.
According to the Conference Board website, the main agenda is for leaders to navigate the most important issues facing their businesses and enable them to better serve society as a whole. This group achieves this goal by reflecting member-based inputs and real-world challenges.
The purpose of The Conference Board’s Business Cycle Index (BCI) is to provide a way to analyze the expansion and contraction of a business cycle. The key indicator composite index (CILI) is one of the three components of BCI. The other two are a composite index of match indicators and a composite index of delay indicators. This is by far the most widely followed, as the leading indicator component seeks to determine the future state of the economy. However, before considering its components and how to interpret them, let’s take a look at the overall background of BCI.
After the Great Depression, economists were eager to find a way to detect the next recession. The development of BCI began in the 1930s when Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) began experimenting with the patterns displayed in NBER data. They call these patterns the business cycle, and in their 1946 book “Measurement of the Business Cycle,” “a near-simultaneous expansion in many economic activities followed by a similarly common recession, contraction, and resurgence. It will be integrated into the expansion phase. ” In the next cycle ”
This early study marks the beginning of a study of business cycles with economic indicators. Much of the following development of this “index approach” was pursued at the NBER under the supervision of Dr. Geoffrey Moore, an economics researcher who developed the concept of leading, delayed, and consistent business cycle indicators. Father of key indicators. ”
By the late 1960s, the US Department of Commerce had produced material similar to the current BCI model of the board. CB took over from the government in December 1995 and became the official issuer of BCI. Today we have released BCI for Mexico, France, UK, South Korea, Japan, Germany, Australia, Spain and the United States. ..
Despite its high profile, the Council Committee has a strong non-political stance in accordance with the Charter, which states that the CB cannot intervene in any political campaign or campaign on behalf of candidates for public office. Is maintained.
Throughout the year, CB sponsors multiple global conferences focusing on a variety of themes and topics, including:
- Employee Benefits and Rewards
- Talent management strategy
- Employee health management
- Executive coaching
- Strategic alliance with joint venture
- Diversity and inclusiveness
- Merger integration
The CB does not participate in arrangements that may appear to support or disagree with the candidate. In addition, it does not:
- Contribute to a campaign committee, candidate, political party, or political action committee.
- Issue or distribute a written statement on behalf of or against the candidate, or issue a statement verbally.
- We also do not pay salaries or expenses for campaign workers.
- Allow the use of telephones, computers, facilities, or other assets for political campaign activities.
Business Cycle Index (BCI) Methodology
The three BCI indexes are called composite indexes because they contain multiple data components. According to their report, Using Circular Indicators (2004), the Board considers six considerations when choosing the right circular component for any index. These six considerations are implemented in the following six statistical and economic tests.
- Conformity: The data series must be consistently fitted with respect to the business cycle.
- Consistent Timing: The series should show a consistent timing pattern as an indicator of lead, match, or lag.
- Economic Importance: Its periodic timing must be economically logical.
- Statistical Validity: Data should be collected and processed in a statistically reliable way.
- Smoothness: The monthly movement should not be too unstable.
- Currencies: Series should be issued on a reasonably quick schedule, preferably monthly.
The report also meets the following criteria:
These criteria apply strictly and allow a relatively small number of individual time series to pass through the master. Quarterly series are not subject to currency shortages. Many monthly series lack smoothness. In fact, there is no single time series that is perfectly qualified as an ideal periodic indicator.
Therefore, few single components meet all six criteria, and the congress committee compiles multiple components into each index of BCI.
Index of key indicator methodologies
The key indicator index traditionally incorporates data from 10 economic releases (see below) that peaked or bottomed before the business cycle. The exact formula for calculating the changes in the key indexes is fairly complex and is not needed to understand the indicators.
Each of the 10 components is averaged and a standardization factor is applied to equalize volatility. In 1996, the index values of the key indicators were rebased to represent the average of 100, and CB releases the data on a monthly basis. Below are the 10 components that make up a composite indicator.
- Weekly average time (manufacturing): Adjustments to existing employees’ working hours are usually made prior to new hires or temporary dismissals. Therefore, average weekly time readings are a leading indicator of changes in the unemployment rate.
- Weekly average unemployment benefits for unemployment insurance: A positive reading indicates a job loss, so the CB inverts the value of this component from positive to negative. Early unemployment claims data is more sensitive to business conditions than other unemployment indicators, leading the monthly unemployment data released by the Ministry of Labor.
- Manufacturer’s new orders for consumer goods / materials: This factor is considered a leading indicator, as an increase in new orders for consumer goods and materials usually means a positive change in actual production. New orders reduce inventory and contribute to open orders. This is a precursor to future earnings.
- Vendor Performance (Slow Delivery Diffusion Index): This component measures the time it takes to deliver an order to an industrial company. Vendor performance is leading the business cycle, as increased delivery times may indicate increased demand …