“There is no better teacher than history in determining the future,” said the late Charlie Munger.
Take a close look at the following chart, from a GAM Investments chart presentation presented last month, titled “Return to the Old Normal”:
FTAV has had some evil Recency Bias Never Appeared wider.*
Granted, we don’t know what was said during the chart presentation, but we assume it was a mumbled apology, or something about journal history/narrative time.
In the spirit of this affront to post-GFC forebears, Alphaville has put together a chart showing how much time the author spends “working”, using yesterday as an example.
As is clearly demonstrated, the work that goes into creating this type of content truly outweighs everything else – look how little he sleeps!
Luckily, the GAM presentation is one of those cool presentations where you can click on a chart to see the underlying data.
So we did that and were able to recreate the GDP timeline above, but with a temporally egalitarian X axis:
Is it better? Well no, not really, unless you want to remember how important industrialization and European colonization of the Americas turned out to be as a share of GDP.
So does this make the GAM approach superior? Arguably yes, although we’re just suggesting that if you’re selling a multi-year emerging markets strategy based on a GDP shares chart, skip a millennium or two.
— Axes of Evil
— Despite the title, the FTAV editorial does not consider that human history began with the birth of Jesus.