In the eyes of Donald Trump, the ongoing string of indictments against him might appear to be a surprising advantage for his chances of re-election. He made this assertion shortly after facing charges from the Justice Department for his alleged role in attempting to overturn the 2020 election. Although this claim may sound counterintuitive and lacks clear evidence, it’s just one of many questionable arguments that Trump and his allies have put forth. These arguments have become more frequent as Trump faces prosecution from various quarters, including the Justice Department, the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office, and the Fulton County District Attorney’s Office in Georgia.
However, the recent findings from a POLITICO Magazine/Ipsos poll suggest a different story for Trump. Despite maintaining a lead in the race for the Republican nomination, the continuous wave of indictments is predicted to negatively impact his chances in the general election.
The poll results indicate that the American public is taking these cases seriously, particularly the one involving the Justice Department’s charges related to the 2020 election. Most respondents are skeptical of Trump’s claims of being unfairly targeted by a legally unfounded witch hunt or a coordinated effort to misuse law enforcement against him.
Moreover, public sentiment has shifted in certain areas compared to a previous poll conducted by POLITICO Magazine/Ipsos in June. This new poll, conducted from August 18 to August 21, reveals changes in opinions about the timing of trials and the possibility of incarcerating Trump if he’s found guilty. The poll involved 1,032 adults aged 18 and above, surveyed online, with a margin of error of ±3.2 percentage points for all respondents.
Here are some key findings from the latest survey:
- A majority of Americans believe Trump should face trial before the 2024 election:
The survey indicates that 59% of respondents feel that the federal trial for Trump’s alleged involvement in subverting the 2020 election should occur before the Republican primaries in early 2024. Moreover, 61% believe the trial should take place before the general election in November 2024.
- About half of the country believes Trump is guilty in the pending prosecutions:
Roughly half of the respondents, including a significant number of Democrats and independents, believe that Trump is guilty of the charges against him in various cases.
- A conviction in the 2020 election case could harm Trump’s chances in the general election:
A notable portion of respondents (32%) say that a conviction in the 2020 election case would make them less likely to support Trump in a presidential bid. Only a small fraction (13%) would be more likely to support him.
- The public’s understanding of the charges and potential outcomes could influence opinions:
While a substantial majority understand the charges in the pending cases, a significant number still feel uncertain. As the cases progress, media coverage and trial revelations could further shape public opinions.
- Half of the respondents believe Trump should go to prison if convicted in the 2020 election case:
Exactly half of the respondents believe Trump should be imprisoned if found guilty in the Justice Department’s case related to the 2020 election. A significant proportion of Democrats and independents agree with this stance.
- Trump’s claims of ‘weaponization’ by Democrats have mixed reception:
Opinions are divided on whether the Justice Department’s decisions were based on a fair assessment of evidence and law or driven by political motives.
- Trump faces unfavorable ratings in public opinion:
Respondents hold a net unfavorable opinion of Trump’s actions and statements, indicating that these indictments have not bolstered his image. Conversely, the Justice Department holds a slightly favorable rating, while the ratings for other key figures are more neutral.
In summary, Trump’s assertion that indictments boost his popularity seems dubious, as the poll reveals that these legal challenges could indeed affect his potential re-election. Public sentiment leans toward taking the charges seriously and doubts the claims of unfair targeting. Moreover, the timing of trials and potential conviction outcomes could play a crucial role in shaping future opinions.